Tuesday, November 02, 2004

update on Kentucky

The numbers have changed a bit:

KentuckyElectoral Votes: 8
President5% of precincts reporting
CandidatesPartyVote Count% Votes Cast

I'm trying to remember at what point this stuff becomes statistically significant. Seems to me that when the spread has been this large in the past, 5% of precincts wasn't a bad indicator. This also pretty much goes along with the latest pre-election polls we have for Kentucky, a Survey USA poll that puts Bush up there 59%-38%.

What I find really encouraging is that if this trend holds across other states (Bush dropping a percentage point and Kerry picking up three), the tossups aren't gonna look that close anymore. We might (and I hate to jinx it) actually see an electoral landlide. Keep your fingers crossed.


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