update on Kentucky

The numbers have changed a bit:

Kentucky		Electoral Votes: 8
President		5% of precincts reporting
Candidates	Party	Vote Count	% Votes Cast
Bush	Rep	51,630	58
Kerry	Dem	36,826	41
Nader	Ind	471	1
Badnarik	Lib	96	0
Peroutka	CST	96	0

I'm trying to remember at what point this stuff becomes statistically significant. Seems to me that when the spread has been this large in the past, 5% of precincts wasn't a bad indicator. This also pretty much goes along with the latest pre-election polls we have for Kentucky, a Survey USA poll that puts Bush up there 59%-38%.

What I find really encouraging is that if this trend holds across other states (Bush dropping a percentage point and Kerry picking up three), the tossups aren't gonna look that close anymore. We might (and I hate to jinx it) actually see an electoral landlide. Keep your fingers crossed.